With viable alternatives to electric why seem EVs to be the only option seriously considered by OEMs and governments?
Sandro D. asked during the live chat Mobility Transformation to Roland Berger
Category: Career Advice
Date asked: Friday, March 6, 2020
Last reviewed: Friday, March 6, 2020
Leonard L.
Senior Consultant
In my personal opinion, EVs are popular today because they are the most tangible solution in terms technological availability. This perception of course is very much driven by governments following public pressure to act agains global warming
Friday, March 6, 2020
Leonard L.
Senior Consultant
Personally, I have my doubt about the role of EVs in 20 years, given that
A) There is much potential in improving combustion engines;
B) there are other technologies like fuel cells that are more attractive once scalable and mature;
C) we will run into disposal problems once there is a large number of EVs ready for scrapping (similar to when nuclear power was first hyped until people realised the amount of hazardous waste created by the technology)
Friday, March 6, 2020
Sandro D.
Does electric really have such a huge technology edge? If so, isn't the major contributor much higher subsidies over the past few years? Could a focus on e.g. fuel cells not be a significant competitive advantage or at least distinguishing factor for German OEMs finding themselves at a considerable disadvantage in comparison to Tesla having a 7 year lead?
Friday, March 6, 2020
Leonard L.
Senior Consultant
That is a lot of questions :-) I will try to address the key points
Friday, March 6, 2020
Leonard L.
Senior Consultant
It had an edge at the time everyone decided to go for electric (c.10 years ago). Some OEMs tried to stick with other technologies (e.g., Daimler with fuel cell), but public and competitive pressure demanded EVs. Also, you have a platform/network problem. Sticking to the industry standard pays out (compare it to developing your own fuel while everyone else uses gas and diesel or the BluRay vs. HD-DVD battle in the late 2000s)
Friday, March 6, 2020
Leonard L.
Senior Consultant
Also Tesla only seemingly has a competitive edge in electrification. Yes - they were the first on the market with good products in the relevant product segments. Yes - they benefit from a halo effect and great marketer as CEO. Yes - they have a large, excellent charging infrastructure. But between in terms of product technology, they are locked into using the probably worst battery cell technology out there (cylindrical cell) due to technological availability 10 years ago. Everyone else is using ouch or prismatic - both technologies that are way more promising in terms of energy density
Friday, March 6, 2020
Leonard L.
Senior Consultant
Personally, I think that Tesla will not be able to maintain its myth-like status forever. Once that is gone, not much will be left
Friday, March 6, 2020
Christian C.
Hi Leonard, can one expect a major drop in fuel cell costs with more R&D and increasing production volumes? Can fuel cells reach the cost level of compareable EVs?
Friday, March 6, 2020
Stephan G.
Project Manager
Major challenge with fuel cells remains the lacking infrastructure. Some major OEMs have set strong Focus on electrification.
Friday, March 6, 2020
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